New Study Reveals Climate Change Led to the Collapse of the Indus Valley Civilization

According to a study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, tributaries of the Indus River experienced significant shrinkage or even temporary cessation between 3,400 and 4,400 years ago, attributed to a marked decrease in precipitation and a gradual rise in temperatures.
The researchers based their findings on the integration of ancient climate data derived from isotopic analysis of stalactites in the Sahyadri and Mahumloh regions of India, alongside advanced climate simulation results to create an accurate picture of weather fluctuations during this critical period of the civilization's history.
Professor Balaghi Rajagopalan from the University of Colorado, who led the research team, noted that the lack of previous climate data hindered understanding of the true causes behind the decline of the Indus Valley Civilization. This study has enabled the aggregation and analysis of various indicators within a unified model, revealing a recurring pattern of long and intense droughts.
Results indicated that precipitation levels dropped by 10 to 20%, coinciding with an average temperature increase of approximately half a degree Celsius, which scientists attribute to weakened monsoon winds during this time. The study also identified four major drought events, each impacting between 65 and 91% of the valley's area and lasting over 85 years.
The final drought, lasting around 113 years from approximately 3,530 years ago, coincided with the ultimate collapse of major cities within the Indus Valley Civilization and the disappearance of its urban centers, suggesting that its inhabitants were forced to migrate to more temperate and humid regions within the Indian subcontinent.
The Indus Valley Civilization, one of the world's oldest and most significant civilizations alongside ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, emerged around five thousand years ago along the banks of the Indus River, at the present-day border between India and Pakistan. It reached its peak between 2200 and 1900 BCE before entering a rapid decline that culminated in its disappearance without a clear explanation until now.
