China Faces Declining Marriage and Birth Rates Amid Demographic Crisis

China is undergoing a critical demographic shift, marked by a historic decline in marriage and birth rates that has prompted government initiatives aimed at reversing this trend. In the mountainous city of Bangjhua, collective wedding ceremonies have evolved from social events into official campaigns designed to encourage young people to marry and start families, reflecting a shift from personal choice to what resembles a "national mission."

Following decades of the one-child policy, which penalized families for having more than one child, Beijing now struggles to persuade young adults to have even a single child. The number of marriages has plummeted by 21%, reaching a record low, exacerbating the crisis, especially since most births in China occur within marriage.

In January 2025, the government reported a population decline for the third consecutive year, projecting a stabilization at approximately 1.408 billion people by the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million from the previous year. Consequently, China joins countries like Japan and Eastern European nations in experiencing ongoing population decline, having lost its title as the "most populous country" to India in 2023.

Second Lowest Birth Rate Since 1949

Despite the year of the "dragon" traditionally being viewed as a favorable time for procreation, the country recorded its second lowest birth rate since 1949. Official data also highlights significant aging, a shrinking workforce, and a declining ratio of workers to retirees, which could drop from 4:1 to 2:1 in the coming years. This demographic shift poses severe challenges for economic growth, social security systems, and overall productivity.

Although the government has introduced a package of incentives to encourage childbirth, the results have fallen short of expectations. In Bangjhua, a monthly payment of 500 yuan for families with a second or third child led to a temporary increase in births, but numbers quickly fell again. Interestingly, local consumption has surged at a rate exceeding the national average, suggesting that financial support is boosting spending rather than encouraging childbirth.

In 2025, Beijing announced a national support program offering $500 annually for each child under three years old, a significant step that underscores the government's concern over the worsening crisis. However, a report from the Youwa Foundation reveals a more complex reality: the cost of raising a single child in China has reached 538,000 yuan—over six times the average annual income per person.

Is the Economy Approaching a "Point of No Return"?

These indicators raise fundamental questions about the future of China's economy. With an aging population, a declining workforce, and rising living costs, experts warn that China may face structural challenges that cannot be resolved solely through financial incentives. Economists argue that comprehensive reforms are necessary to address labor market issues, housing policies, social security, and the costs of education and child-rearing.

A demographic crisis of this magnitude could reshape China's economic landscape for decades to come and influence its global standing and growth trajectory.