US Report Highlights Risks of Nuclear Submarine Transfer to Australia on Navy Readiness

A recent report from the Congressional Research Service raises concerns that the planned transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia may adversely affect the operational capabilities of the US Navy, particularly amid an existing shortage of submarines. The report suggests that the arrangement, which involves the sale of three to five submarines, could compromise US fleet readiness until the late 2040s.

Military Strategy in Response to China

This initiative is part of a broader military strategy among allies. Reports indicate that the US Department of Defense intends to deploy four nuclear submarines to the Stirling base in Western Australia, which is currently being expanded. The first US submarine is expected to arrive by 2027 as part of efforts to bolster military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Impact on US Submarine Fleet

According to the report, the transfer of submarines to Australia, slated to commence in early 2032, will reduce the number of submarines available to the US Navy, which is already facing a fleet shortage. This decline could persist until new submarines are operational, likely not until between 2040 and 2049, as per estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

Strategic Deterrence Concerns

The authors of the report noted that transferring Virginia-class submarines to Australia would remove them from potential US operational use during conflicts, particularly with China, thereby potentially undermining deterrence capabilities and combat readiness. The report also highlighted that Australia has not clearly committed to supporting the US in a potential conflict over Taiwan, despite receiving advanced military technology from the US.

Challenges in Defense Production

The report pointed out significant challenges within the US defense industrial base. Despite funding for the construction of two submarines annually since 2011, production rates have declined since 2022 to about 1.1 to 1.2 submarines per year, resulting in delays in fulfilling planned commitments. To meet obligations to the US Navy and the AUKUS alliance, production rates need to increase to approximately 2.33 submarines per year, a target that remains unmet.

Maintenance Issues Strain Fleet Readiness

Additionally, the report highlighted a worsening maintenance crisis, with around 34% of the US submarine fleet—equivalent to 16 submarines—undergoing repairs or awaiting maintenance during fiscal year 2024. This figure significantly exceeds the Navy's target maintenance rate of 20%, further reducing the number of operational submarines and increasing pressure on crews.

Nuclear Armament Limitations Raise Concerns

The report also noted that transferring submarines to Australia could restrict their capability to be equipped with sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles, due to Australia’s commitment to maintaining a non-nuclear status, which may weaken US strategic deterrence.

AUKUS Alliance and Geopolitical Context

It is important to note that the AUKUS trilateral agreement, established in 2021 between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, aims to enhance defense and technological cooperation among the three nations. This agreement has faced criticism from Russia and China, who perceive it as a move towards establishing a military alliance in Asia akin to NATO.