Russian Energy Minister Forecasts Stable Oil Refining and Gas Production Rates for 2025

The Russian Energy Ministry announced today that it anticipates stability in oil refining and natural gas production rates for 2025, aligning with the forecasts for 2024. This prediction comes amid ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Russia.
Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev stated, as reported by the ministry's press service, "We expect that oil refining and natural gas and coal production operations in 2025 will remain at 2024 levels." However, he did not provide specific figures to support this estimate.
These comments come as Ukraine has intensified drone attacks within Russian territory since August, aiming to disrupt critical energy facilities like oil refineries, storage depots, and pipelines, which are vital for financing the ongoing conflict. Reports indicate that drones have targeted at least 17 major refineries.
Sources within the industry cited by Reuters last month noted that Russian refineries, which were operating below maximum capacity even before the attacks, possess operational flexibility that has allowed them to mitigate some of the impacts of these strikes. This adaptability is attributed to their ability to operate backup units in affected and unaffected plants, as well as the swift repair and recommissioning of damaged units.
Russia remains a key player in the global energy market, ranked as the third-largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the second-largest exporter of crude oil worldwide. Additionally, Moscow holds the largest proven natural gas reserves globally. The frequency of Ukrainian attacks has previously led Russia to implement precautionary measures, including reducing fuel exports and bolstering air defense systems to protect strategic facilities.
