2026: A Pivotal Year for Artificial Intelligence Leadership

After years of hype and significant promises, the field of artificial intelligence is nearing a decisive moment.

A recent report from Forbes indicates that 2026 will not merely be a year of wonder but rather a year of crucial decisions that will outline the global leadership landscape in this highly competitive sector, influenced by financial pressures, rapid innovation, and escalating geopolitical conflicts.

Here are seven key transformations expected to reshape the global AI landscape and potentially alter the balance of power among companies and nations:

1. Anthropic Moves Toward IPO as OpenAI Delays
With soaring development costs, Anthropic is likely to become the first major AI lab to pursue an initial public offering, leveraging a clearer business model, while OpenAI continues to rely on private funding and postpones its market entry.

2. Potential Leaks Could Shake AI Giants
The uncertainty surrounding the Safe Superintelligence (SSI) lab may soon be resolved, as forecasts suggest information leaks regarding its research approach, prompting leading global labs to reassess their strategies and development paths.

3. China Narrows the Gap in the Chip Race
Despite U.S. restrictions, China is expected to make gradual progress in developing local AI chips. While it remains distant from competing with Nvidia, Beijing is charting a long-term path toward technological independence.

4. The Dream of Artificial General Intelligence Retreats
Following a wave of optimism, discussions about the imminent arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) are receding, shifting focus to practical applications and direct economic returns.

5. An Accounting Crisis on the Horizon
The depreciation of AI chips and the accelerated aging of hardware could lead to a financial crisis, potentially impacting corporate profits and market valuations amid rising debt levels.

6. Custom Chips Transition from Concept to Reality
2026 may witness the launch of concrete projects aimed at designing custom chips, driven by AI labs and robotics companies, propelled by advancements in hardware design automation.

7. OpenAI Faces Potential Leadership Changes
As competition intensifies and pressures mount to become a public company, OpenAI may undergo a reorganization of its leadership structure, potentially including significant changes in executive positions.