US Report Highlights Risks of Nuclear Submarine Transfer to Australia for Navy Readiness
February 10, 202685 AufrufeLesezeit: 3 Minuten
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An updated report from the Congressional Research Service warns that the proposed transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia could adversely affect the operational capabilities of the US Navy, particularly in light of the current shortage of deployable submarines. The report indicates that the deal, which includes the sale of three to five submarines, may diminish the readiness of the US fleet through the late 2040s.
Military Movements in Response to China
This initiative is part of broader military arrangements among allies, with media reports suggesting that the US Department of Defense plans to station four "Virginia" class nuclear submarines at a base in Western Australia, which is currently undergoing expansion. The first US submarine is expected to arrive at the base by 2027, as part of efforts to bolster military presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Reduction in US Fleet Amid Transfers
According to the report, the transfer of submarines to Australia, set to begin in early 2032, will decrease the number of submarines available to the US Navy, which is already facing a shortage of naval units. This decline is projected to persist until new submarines are commissioned, potentially delaying until between 2040 and 2049, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
Potential Impact on Strategic Deterrence
The authors of the report emphasize that transferring "Virginia" class submarines to Australia means they will be removed from potential operational readiness for the US in the event of conflicts, particularly with China. This could negatively impact deterrence capabilities and combat readiness. The report also notes that Australia has not made clear commitments to support the US in the event of a potential conflict over Taiwan, despite receiving US military technology.
Challenges in Production and Defense Industry
The report highlights challenges facing the US defense industry. Despite funding to build two submarines per year since 2011, actual production rates have fallen to between 1.1 and 1.2 submarines per year since 2022, leading to delays in the implementation of approved plans. To meet commitments to the US Navy and the AUKUS pact, production rates must increase to approximately 2.33 submarines per year, a target that has yet to be achieved.
Maintenance Crisis Increases Pressure on Fleet
The report also points to a worsening maintenance crisis for deployable submarines, with about 34% of the US fleet, equating to 16 submarines, undergoing repairs or maintenance in fiscal year 2024, significantly exceeding the Navy's target of 20%. This situation reduces the number of operational submarines and increases pressure on deployment crews.
Restrictions on Nuclear Armament Raise Strategic Concerns
The report notes that transferring submarines to Australia may limit the ability to equip them with nuclear cruise missiles, as Canberra has committed to using only conventional weapons as a non-nuclear nation, potentially undermining US strategic deterrence elements.
The AUKUS Alliance and Its Geopolitical Implications
It is worth noting that the trilateral AUKUS agreement between the US, UK, and Australia was signed in 2021 to enhance defense and technology collaboration among the three nations. The agreement has drawn criticism from Russia and China, who view it as a step toward creating a military alliance in Asia akin to NATO.
