France Faces Historic Demographic Shift as Deaths Outnumber Births for First Time Since WWII

In a significant demographic milestone, France reported in 2025 that deaths outnumbered births for the first time since World War II. Official data indicated 651,000 deaths against 645,000 births, signaling potential demographic challenges that could impact the French economy and society in the years ahead.

Decline in Fertility Rate and Its Consequences

The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) revealed that the fertility rate has decreased to 1.56 children per woman, the lowest level recorded since World War II and below the critical threshold of 1.8 needed to maintain sustainable pension funding. This decline follows a notable drop in birth rates post-COVID-19 pandemic.

Historically, France has maintained a more robust demographic profile compared to other EU nations; however, the increasing elderly population presents challenges akin to those faced by other countries, particularly concerning public expenditures on health and retirement services.

Economic Concerns

Last month, the French Court of Auditors cautioned that demographic changes could strain public finances, with a diminishing tax base and escalating social care expenses.

Economist Philippe Crevel from the Circle of Economic Research commented, “As older generations born in the 1960s retire, we can expect intensified labor market pressures and workforce shortages in the coming years.”

Population Growth Amid Rising Deaths

Despite the increase in deaths, France's population has seen a slight rise to 69.1 million in 2025, aided by a net immigration influx of approximately 176,000 individuals.

These statistics are viewed as preliminary indicators of significant demographic transitions that may necessitate a reevaluation of future social and economic policies to balance the workforce with the growing number of retirees in France.